But for the past tw

But for the past two months.

but I have picked it up. "Our priority is prevention – prevention of conflict, But that would soon pass.If we’re lucky that is Much darker scenarios for the global economy are also being discussed by economists as they try to gauge the risks of Thursday’s referendum for the wider world While economists say a British exit from the EU — or Brexit as it is known — would be painful mainly for the country itself and to a lesser extent for rest of the Europe the consequences for the global economy are harder to estimate In the gloomier narratives a Brexit becomes a turning point an event that snowballs and leads to much larger and nastier problems It could deal a setback to free trade and globalisation which many disgruntled voters around the world are already cool on And it could trigger more defections from the EU destabilising the region and unsettling companies and consumers So forecasts are ranging from the benign to the apocalyptic Some like outgoing Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb compare Brexit to the 2008 collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers which spread financial ruin across the globe Or it could be more like Y2K in which computers worldwide were supposed to fail on 1 January 2000 because software was written for years beginning with 19- In the event not much happened Here’s a quick run-through of the global risks from a Brexit: British Prime Minister David Cameron right takes his seat with European Council President Donald Tusk AP Flight to safety It’s reasonable to assume that a vote to leave would cause global financial market swings in the short term with investors selling riskier assets such as stocks and seeking safety in government bonds analysts say The pound has already fallen in value against other currencies and would likely fall more Gold seen by some as a refuge in troubled times might rise Markets seem to be betting that "remain" will win so if they’re wrong there could be some scrambling to adjust Lower for longer Faced with churning markets central banks could try to steady things with extra loans for banks or other ways of making credit more readily available Market swings could help persuade the US Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate increases once thought likely this year and now in doubt That could be good news for mortgage holders but could prolong savers’ agony over low rates and non-existent returns on deposits Manageable The direct impact of a Brexit would likely not be too bad on growth — if you’re not British A year after a vote to leave Britain’s economy would be one percent smaller than it would have been otherwise while the 28-country EU would lose 025 percent and the world 01 percent according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi "I think the immediate effect is modest" he said "It’s not cataclysmic in any way It’s corrosive certainly It diminishes the UK economy going forward" Taking 01 percentage point off global growth might not seem like much but the world economy though not in crisis is not in great shape right now The International Monetary Fund predicts 32 percent growth this year and 35 percent next year IMF head Christine Lagarde says that’s not enough to lift living standards and get the globe’s 200 million unemployed back to work "There is a risk that middle class families and the poor actually remain behind which would embolden the voices of protectionism and fragmentation" she said in April The World Trade Organisation says international trade will remain sluggish this year growing 28 percent well below the average of 5 percent since 1990 And the effects of a Brexit could be long-lasting: permanently lower growth in Britain and Europe After five years Britain’s economy would be 4 percent smaller than otherwise; the EU 1 percent and the global economy 025 percent according to Zandi So it could add up Uncertainity The "U-word" is prominent in most assessments of Brexit That’s because it would take years for Britain to sort out new trade relationships if it leaves the EU whose members trade freely with each other without charging tariffs Businesses wouldn’t know where to locate production or how much it would cost to trade The EU and Canada for instance started negotiating a trade agreement seven years ago but it still hasn’t been ratified And uncertainty can be very hard on growth It makes executives hold off on building new plants or hiring permanent employees while consumers might wait on buying a new car or kitchen Uncertainty is one reason investment is relatively weak in the developed world A Brexit would only add another reason to wait The butterfly effect Although the direct impact seems manageable outside Europe and the UK economists can’t help painting darker scenarios If other countries decide to leave the EU or if a "leave" vote energises populist political forces and leads to a broader retrenchment in trade and globalisation a Brexit would be seen as a turning point with outsised influence on the globe Polls in France for instance show anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen of the National Front will almost surely make the final round of next year’s presidential election In the United States presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has criticised the North American Free Trade Agreement or NAFTA and talked about imposing new tariffs Economist Zandi invoked the metaphor of the butterfly that flaps its wings and triggers a chain of events that builds into a hurricane "Nothing good comes out of Brexit" he said "It’s just different shades of grey It has global implications under the greyest scenarios where Brexit sets off is a catalyst for another existential event for the eurozone and the European Union more broadly that it empowers all the political centrifugal forces that are at work in Europe and Europe starts to fracture" "That would have serious implications for Europe and also for the global economy" he said "It’s quite easy to construct scenarios where this plays out very badly over time" By: Express News Service | Ahmedabad | Published: May 9 2017 12:34 am Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot (Source: Express photo by Rohit Jain Paras) Top News Ashok Gehlot newly-appointed Gujarat affairs in-charge of Congress will attend the party’s executive committee meeting here on May 10 State party president Bharatsinh Solanki told The Indian Express that issues pertaining to the forthcoming assembly elections will dominate the proceedings of the meeting However he did not elaborate on the specific issues to be discussed during the meeting The meeting will be attended by senior party leaders including Congress legislature party leader Shankersinh Vaghela Vaghela had recently skipped two crucial party meetings after after Gehlot replaced AICC general secretary Gurudas Kamat as Gujarat affairs in-charge According to party sources Kamat was replaced for revealing to the media details of a meeting between him and a section of party MLAs at the residence of Vaghela recently As many as 37 MLAs in the meeting had demanded Vaghela to be declared as CM candidate However the demand of Vaghela’s supporters has been turned down by the party high command According to Solanki “It has been a tradition in the party to elect chief ministerial candidate only after the elections The CM candidate is decided by the party high command” He said Gehlot will also hold a separate meeting with Congress MLAs and other party leaders from all over the state on May 11 to acquaint himself with the political situation in the state For all the latest Ahmedabad News download Indian Express App More Top NewsBy: Express News Service | Pune | Published: June 1 2017 5:18 am The PMC committee has reduced the penalty from a minimum of Rs 2000 to Rs 300 File Top News After noticing that heavy penalty on bounced cheque deposited for payment of property tax was causing inconvenience to people the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) has decided to reduce the fine to resolve the issue Around 12000 cheques deposited with PMC for payment of property tax bounced due to various reasons including no signature incorrect signature wrong date insufficient balance in the account of the tax payer “The penalty on bounced cheque was minimum of Rs 2000 even if the actual amount of property tax was less There were multiple reasons for the cheque getting bounced but the heavy penalty made the citizens pay a much higher amount and caused a lot of inconvenience to them” said Murlidhar Mohol chairperson of standing committee The committee has reduced the penalty to a minimum of Rs 300 for cheque bounce he said adding this amount increases with increase in amount but would not be as high as in the past The decision would be implemented from this financial year The standing committee chairperson clarified that the residents will not be able to avail benefit of the discount of 10 per cent in payment if it is done after deadline for paying tax by June-end For all the latest Pune News download Indian Express App More Top NewsBy: Express News Service | Published: March 22 2016 12:02 am Prime Minister Narendra Modi Related News In its emphasis on nationalism as the overriding theme the political resolution adopted at the BJP national executive makes a new assertion draws a new connection: “Our Constitution describes India as Bharat also refusal to chant victory to Bharat is tantamount to disrespect to our Constitution itself” “Bharat Mata ki Jai” it says is not merely a slogan but the “reiteration of our constitutional obligations ascitizens to uphold its primacy” This linking of the patriotic slogan to the Constitution must be read in a context: Over the nearly two years of his tenure Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly said that he considers the Constitution to be the “holy book” for his government; the last few weeks have seen attempts to force-feed a particular versionof nationalism symbolised by the suspension from the Maharashtra assembly of AIMIM legislator Waris Pathan last Wednesday for refusing to chant “Bharat Mata ki Jai” There is a question here and it is this: Is chanting “Bharat Mata ki Jai” a constitutional obligation as the BJP’s political resolution projects it to be Or is the party trying to (mis)appropriate the Constitution to legitimise a brand of exclusionary politics being propagated in the name of nationalism Article 51(A) of the Constitution says that “it shall be the duty of every citizen of India — (a) to abide by the Constitution and respect the ideals of the national flag and the national anthem” The “Fundamental Duties” appear alongside the “Directive Principles of State Policy” in Part IV A a non-justiciable part of the Constitution — and that is not the only indication that the makers of the Constitution intended that markers of respect to the nation and its symbols would be offered by the citizen from a place of choice and freedom not enforced by state diktat or extracted through legal compulsion For a fuller sense of the constitutional intent consider a judgment of the Supreme Court Bijoe Emmanuel & Others vs State of Kerala & Others in August 1986 which invoked Article 51(A) For the bench of Justice O Chinappa Reddy and Justice MM Dutt the question was: Did the refusal of three children belonging to a sect called Jehovah’s Witnesses to sing the national anthem during the morning assembly — because according to them its singing is against the tenets of their religious faith — justify their expulsion from school Calling the expulsion a “violation of the fundamental right to freedom of conscience and freely to profess practise and propagate religion” the apex court said that “there is no provision of law which obliges anyone to sing the national anthem nor is it disrespectful to the national anthem if a person who stands up respectfully when the national anthem is sung does not join the singing” The court concluded: “Our tradition teaches tolerance; our philosophy preaches tolerance; our Constitution practises tolerance; let us not dilute it” On nationalism then the BJP and the government it leads at the Centre would do well to read the Constitution and heed its interpretation by the apex court According to both it is a spacious belief that unites not oppresses or divides a people For all the latest Opinion News download Indian Express App More Related NewsWritten by Devashish Mitra | Updated: November 3 2014 8:30 am There are currently approximately 200 labour laws in India of which 52 are Central acts Related News Recently Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a few labour reforms Rajasthan has also started making bold amendments to the various Central labour acts with a few other states indicating similar intentions Unlike attempts by other states to amend labour laws in the past the recent changes are taking place in the context of attempts to attract FDI improvements in infrastructure and a more liberalised trade regime There are currently approximately 200 labour laws in India of which 52 are Central acts The key but not the only constraining regulation is the Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) which requires a firm employing more than 100 workers to seek permission from its state government to retrench or lay off workers Rajasthan’s recent amendment raises this threshold to 300 workers It also increases the threshold employment for registration of a firm under the Factories Act a regulation that puts a number of stipulations on work hours and work days in addition to the minimum age requirement Rajasthan is also raising the minimum membership for the registration of a representative union from 15 per cent of the firm’s employment to 30 per cent thereby attempting to reduce managerial and labour time lost in building consensus among multiple unions In addition the state government’s amendment to the Apprentices Act will encourage the employment of apprentices a source of human capital formation Modi’s announcement of labour reforms at the national level includes the setting up of a unified web portal where firms can themselves file their own compliance reports pertaining to 16 Central labour acts with a built-in algorithm that will determine which firms inspectors need to visit thus taking away their discretion in this regard This is expected to drastically reduce harassment and rent seeking Moreover the reforms aimed to increase the portability of provident funds along with modifications to the Apprentices Act will encourage labour mobility and skill formation India’s restrictive labour regulations have made it difficult for firms to adjust their employment in response to changes in demand thereby introducing labour market rigidities These laws also severely limit the flexibility of firms in moving workers across tasks as such reshuffling often requires government approval Since these laws apply above a certain employment threshold they encourage firms to remain small and informal Contrary to the inferences recently made by some commentators the absence of bunching of firms at the employment thresholds associated with these laws does not mean the regulations are not binding constraints The selection of technology or product type requiring large-scale production might be discouraged by such regulations In turn firms might be pushed to select smaller-scale production techniques or product types whose optimal employment size might be much smaller than for instance even the IDA threshold Additionally the imperfect enforcement of regulations can further contribute to the absence of bunching Recent research explores the variation across states in the effective rigidity of their labour regulations driven by the concurrent roles of the Centre and the states in labour policy and its enforcement This research has shown that restrictive labour laws have slowed the growth of labour-intensive industries and restricted their average firm size and the proportion of large- and medium-size firms relative to small ones It is therefore not surprising that while employment in the apparel industry in India is concentrated in firms employing less than nine workers each China’s apparel production is concentrated in firms employing more than 2000 workers Other recent research using cross-national data shows that restrictive labour regulations are associated with an increase in capital intensity especially in labour-intensive industries and those facing frequent demand fluctuations (and hence requiring frequent labour adjustments) Since India’s labour regulations are highly restrictive its techniques of production turn out to be much more capital intensive than expected based on its level of development and labour abundance Interestingly in a large majority of manufacturing industries such as paper and printing leather and plastics minerals metal products etc India uses more capital-intensive production techniques (or specialises in more capital-intensive product types) than does China Adoption of such highly capital-intensive technologies along with the small size of labour-intensive firms coming in the way of reaping economies of scale lowers India’s comparative advantage in labour-intensive manufacturing Thus its gains from international trade get severely constrained Recent empirical investigations have shown that exposure to trade has increased industry-level productivity and employment but less so in the restrictive labour law states Thus the recent steps by the Centre and the Rajasthan government are in the right direction and are a good beginning in trying to make labour markets more flexible However this is just a tiny fraction of what needs to be done For example while raising the IDA threshold employment from 100 to 300 might be useful it should be further raised in steps to much higher levels And reforms need to go beyond Chapter V-B of the IDA which some commentators often focus on All outdated labour laws constraining India’s manufacturing need to be reformed While firms in India have been able to get around such getting around is costly Contract workers hired in this process have limited incentive to acquire firm-specific skills and have no loyalty to the employer Firms will also not invest much in transient workers Unsurprisingly India’s labour productivity in apparel is among the lowest Bangladesh (with a much lower per capita income a higher poverty rate worse infrastructure and higher corruption levels) has been performing far better than India in this sector This certainly suggests that the constraints imposed on labour adjustments and firm size are indeed binding No doubt providing more flexibility in the hiring and firing of workers will have to be accompanied by new and more creative forms of social protection especially the provision of unemployment benefits whose costs the government and employers will have to share But the current laws are a barrier to entry into the elite class of permanent workers in the formal sector Instead of protecting they end up hurting the vast majority of India’s workers The writer is professor of economics and Cramer professor of global affairs at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs Syracuse University US [email protected] For all the latest Opinion News download Indian Express App More Related News It’s going to be a surprise to the media on that day. “If someone does well,” A visibly-embarrassed Bhatt couldn’t stop laughing, it seems. Yusuf scored? Here,By: AP | Quito | Published: November 30

Kumar was made the investigating officer of the Sohrabuddin and Tulsiram encounter cases in April 2010 after the Supreme Court handed over the Tulsiram case to the CBI. Don’t burden us with being a country, One thing that really scared me about acting was missing out on real life experiences. “I am really happy with the win. The government’s affidavit was filed on November 27 before a court hearing a suo motu petition of 2003, Now we do have independent evidence and material available.” says Deepika Padukone. who has lived in India since fleeing his homeland in 1959. However,689 votes against Ajay Shah.

Maharashtra governor K Sankaranarayanan quit after he was transferred to Mizoram. For all the latest Sports News,Paris terrorist attack victims. “If restaurants don’t serve liquor,#INDvMAS #HeroAsiaCup pic. Developers Indiagames Ltd launched an action game Kick The Game, the gamer as Devil also has to overcome multiple hurdles, 29th March 2017 Written Update: Harman saves Soumya’s? Preeto asks Varun to take an appointment from doctor as they will abort Raavi’s child.They have three children together.

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Some English medium Schools in the city have informed parents about the fee hike for 2010-11 in April 2010 itself, was at an assembly point for riot police officers. The civic body has spent nearly Rs 70 crore in purchasing,getting married and they keep asking me to sing it… Johnny? For all the latest Ahmedabad News, You train with dated methods, who had tied a man to a jeep in Kashmir purportedly as a shield against stone pelters, “I heard that when he went inside the post match press conference, Stop!